1 When History moves on : The Foundations and Diffusion of a Second Demographic Transition

The first demographic transition refers to the original declines in fertility and mortality, as witnessed in western countries already from the 18 and 19th Centuries onward, and during the second half of the 20 Century in the rest of the world. At present, there is hardly any country left without a beginning of a fertility decline brought by the manifest use of contraception. Moreover, this first demographic transition (FDT) was equally accompanied by an overhaul of traditional family formation systems. In the West, the control of fertility within wedlock occurred in tandem with a reduction in final celibacy and a lowering of ages at marriage, signaling a major departure from its old Malthusian nuptiality system. In the rest of the world, early marriage for women – often the result of arrangements between families or lineages – gave way to much later marriage, partly because of more individual partner choice and partly as a response to economic factors. But on the whole, William Goode’s prediction of 1963 forecasting a rise in non-western ages at marriage, has largely been borne out by the record of the last 40 years. This increase in ages at marriage has furthermore been a major component in the overall fertility decline in many such countries.